Is Biya era coming to a crushing end?

Written by Eugene N. Nforngwa

Tuesday, 06 July 2010 10:18

Multi-risk 2011 seen as turning point year for 28-year regime

YAOUNDE—President Paul Biya has not indicated he would run for re-election in 2011. But the general assumption is that he would, fired-up by multiple encouragements from his supporters. Aged 78 and one of Africa’s long serving leaders, Mr Biya does not also appear to have a succession plan in place. After changing the constitution to leave room for his candidacy, it is doubtful that he undertook such an unpopular and risky political move for someone else’s benefit. Plus, there is a good chance that if he runs, he is likely to secure seven more years in office. The question is whether he would get the chance.

A new report, which captures problems with the Biya regime, doubts. Though stable-looking, the Biya regime faces numerous problems from within. Several years of centralised power is giving way to divisions both among elite of the ruling CPDM party and in a highly politicised army, says the report that warns of threats of conflict in the country ahead of the coming election. In spite of the unanimous calls for Mr Biya to run for re-election, ambitions from within the governing circle to take over power are real, note authors of Cameroon: the Dangers of a Fracturing Regime. The warning is the second within two months from the non-governmental International Crisis Group.

“The ruling party is increasingly divided. Although it dominates political life, it knows that it lacks legitimacy, and it is weakened by intense internal rivalries over control of resources and positioning for the post-Biya period,” notes Crisis Greoup. “Having done away with the constitutional limitation on the number of presidential terms, [Mr] Biya, who is at the same time feared and opposed in his own party, is deliberately maintaining uncertainty over whether he will stand again. Many members of his party harbour their own presidential ambitions.

“The security forces, a pillar of support for the regime, are also divided. A small number of elite units have good equipment and training, while the rest, although they do receive their correct salaries on a regular basis, lack resources and are poorly prepared. The military as a whole suffers from tensions between generations, not least because the refusal of older generals to retire blocks promotions for more junior officers. Some members of the security forces are also widely believed to be involved in criminal activities.”

In May, Crisis Group warned that Cameroon’s current stability was “deceitful”. In its most recent report released on June 14, it again warns of the danger of conflict.

“With the country afflicted by high levels of corruption, a clientelist political system and a heavy security presence in all areas of life, many citizens feel excluded from the system. Fully half the population is younger than twenty, so the high level of youth unemployment and under-employment is a considerable source of social tension.

“Given such fissures, were Biya to die in office a serious crisis could unfold, aggravated by the unclear constitutional provisions for a transition. Such an event may not occur for some time, but, with democracy at an impasse, the immediate post-Biya period is already a significant factor in intra-regime politics, and acknowledged as a major potential cause of instability. In any event, the 2011 elections could easily lead to conflict if they are poorly organised or lack transparency. The organising body has no legitimacy and has already made a bad start in the preparations. If there is no option for democratic political change, there is a good chance ordinary citizens, members of the political class and/or military elements will eventually choose violence as a way out of the current impasse.”