The anti-corruption drive started in 2006 was a major turning point in Yaounde’s attitude towards the problem. It came after decades of blatant denial of its existence by the regime in Yaounde. Understandably, President Paul Biya was applauded at home and abroad. The United States pledged its full support to the campaign, as did many other Western powers and multilateral institutions. And then, suddenly, the operation dubbed sparrow-hawk began looking ugly. Critics said it had been diverted to fight political opposition and ethic groups complained of discrimination in the arrests.  Others wandered of what point the operation was, if it ended with the jailing of those found guilty, leaving stolen money stashed away. No doubt, by the time fresh arrests were made last week, some of the initial applause had considerably given way to suspicion.
The arrest of two former ministers brought the number of high profile arrests to more than 20. Security sources have told the Standard Tribune that in all around 500 people have been arrested. The number is impressive, even given the scale of corruption in the country. It shows for the first time that even if political scores are being settled, people with no known political might are being taken in. Added to the number of police officers being reprimanded every now and then for “harassment and extortion”, it is our belief that authorities are moving in the right direction. At some point, it would dawn on the public that things are changing.

Biya must take credit for those steps. But we fear that the lack of broad reforms could make any real results elusive. You cannot fight corruption by simply catching people and jailing them. It has not worked with other forms of crimes. Unless measures that make it difficult to be corrupt or steal from the public purse are put in place, people will still take a chance at bribery and embezzlement. Critical to this is to introduce more transparency in the way public affairs are conducted. Government procedures need to be simplified and made known to the wide public. Corruption in the taxation, customs and judicial sectors are largely provoked by red tape and opaque procedures.  Simple things like making large payments by bank transfer and cheques can limit the amount of cash in circulation and leave traces about where government money is going to.

Events are holding nationwide this week to mark 27 years of the Biya regime. President Paul Biya, 76, is one of the world’s oldest and longest serving leaders. A constitutional revision in 2008 makes it possible for him to run for another term of seven years in 2011.But even as his supporters call on him to fall for the temptation, it is difficult to say if Biya would yield. Both the political climate and the president’s age would be key in determining his future.

So could 27 be President Paul Biya’s last anniversary? The political outlook and the president’s advancing age make it look so. Plus, there are growing calls from within his own party for an early presidential election in 2010.  What for?

If Biya would run in 2011 do some think he would not make it till then? Hard to say. But within the regime, there is speculation that the early election scenario is likely. Some think the president plans to name a successor in 2010 and then embark on his first ever nationwide tour, which could easily be a farewell tour.

One implication is the carrying out of another constitutional revision, which should see a return of the post of vice president, who becomes constitutional successor. Such a scenario makes it possible for Biya to resign and hand over to a vice president ahead of any election, most likely next year.

The idea is to avoid a chaotic transition into an after-Biya era, according to people aware of this plan. Biya understandably would not leave without knowing what his future holds. But the maths looks too easy and the path too slippery.

Under the current political outlook, Biya cannot easily handpick a successor. The regime is way too divided and the president can’t be sure of any true loyalty. And so, Biya’s political calculations at this point appear centred on how to leave, who to leave behind, rather than on how to stay on.

The first hint was the constitutional amendment of 2008, which many in Yaounde now think was intended to create confusion among those waiting for his term to expire so they can take over.

“Unsure of how a new president would treat him, Biya used the constitutional change as a delay tactics while he finds an easy way out,” says one senior official of the regime.
Truth is, opposition against Biya has been growing within the ranks of his own regime, according to several people familiar with the whispers in corridors. Since the emergence of “Liberals” within the party earlier this decade, there has been a tendency for the formation of splinter groups concerned about the after-Biya.
G11, the shadowy group of cronies with Beti ethnic coloration, whose leaders are now believed to be in jail, is one and is perhaps the most serious threat to Biya’s future. “They have appointed people to important places in the country and can operate from jail,” says the official who has strong understanding of the current political climate in Yaounde.  

THE NORTHERN BLOC

But it is the northerners in and out of the regime alike that believe they have legitimate claim to the next presidency, says the official.  “The nordistes are loyal to Biya as a way of frustrating the G11 ambition and ensuring they get what is rightly theirs.”

Issa Tchiroma, the new communication minister and opposition northerner has interestingly been very vocal about the existence of a strong conspiracy to overthrow Biya. In many comments, especially in the media, the minister has done little to veil the fact that G11, the southern group, could be that conspiracy.  

Bongo scenario  

But there is always the possibility of calling senate elections next year. And if Biya decides to go, the head of the senate takes over only for a few months. In an event where the election is run by the senate, Biya cannot guarantee himself any control over who becomes his successor. There is, though, the faint prospect that in the ensuing chaos, his son Frank could become president as consensus candidate. But this is a gamble many believe the president is unwilling to bet in.

And that leaves Biya with one safe option - pick a candidate, hand over and leave quietly.

Even then, Biya still can pull a surprise, the most obvious being: candidate Paul Biya in 2011. Changing the constitution in 2008 was too costly a choice for a man sincerely looking at the door. It has brought him much disregard from the international community. Western media class him as one of Africa’s “last strongmen” an expression that easily replaces dictator in news articles.

The appointment of ELECAM did not help matters. The US, one of Biya’s key partners called the calibre of ELECAM members disappointing, at best. With the organ yet to swing into action, it is unlikely it would be ready for 2010. But it does not look like the poll will be delayed for this reason. The ministry of territorial administration could have one more shot at elections, I bet.

Hail to the Cameroon Supreme Court! That august judicial institution has since become independent of the Executive arm. It did not wait for the implementation of the Banjul Verdict calling for reforms in the Higher Judicial Council, that regulates Cameroon courts, by choosing “personalities other than the President of the Republic, the Minister for Justice and other members of the Executive Branch” to stir its affairs.

No, the Supreme Court did not wait. It moved ahead of time. It no longer takes orders from members of the Executive, reforms or none. If you doubt it, check with Ama Tutu Muna, Minister for Culture. That court has already issued two orders censuring her over the Cameroon Music Corporation (CMC) palaver.
I know a certain opinion holds that decisions taken over the CMC affair, may have been ill-advised, but that not being the focus of this contribution, the nitty-gritty will be discussed subsequently.

But who has ever heard in this country that a minister of the Republic is ordered to bow to the dictates of ordinary citizens? Don’t be mistaken: I am an ordinary citizen, and I’ve been dreaming of that day when the rascal who slaps me on the way, even if they are kids of a minister, are  brought to book according to the law; of that day when a judge would not say they know the truth but cannot deliver justice because their hands are tied; of that day when a judge, knowing there have been electoral malpractices, declares the elections cancelled even if the one benefiting from the electoral fraud is the chairman of the Judicial Council that determines their professional fortunes.

As an ordinary citizen with no godfather, my hopes should rest in an independent judiciary that serves as a guarantor of my rights as an individual or member of a group in a society that never runs short of abuses, be they from other individuals, institutions or governmental services. I would want the minister who demolishes my house unlawfully to be made to pay.

I remember the statement “afflicting the comfortable and comforting the afflicted” so, you’d expect I should have been celebrating the Supreme Court’s landmark decision, compelling a minister to restore the “rights” of CMC, led by Sam Mbede.

But look at it again: the “tormentor” in this matter could really be the victim. Ama Muna could be the victim as it looks like Sam Mbede is enjoying the backing of a strong lobby at the Presidency of the Republic.

That lobby, we understand, ordered his immediate release from detention the day palaver turned nasty in May 2008. And that lobby, it seems, continues to pull the strings, using old professional camaraderie and subsequent patronage of the Judiciary to make nonsense of Ama Muna.

We haven’t seen our courts handle matters with such alacrity and persistence as in this Ama Muna-CMC palaver. We know how frustrating it has been for justice to be done to a certain woman who was suing the Yaounde government delegate for razing – just like that – a house she built in Yaounde from years of toiling abroad. There we didn’t see the alacrity of the courts. Tsimi Evouna who was targeted by that suit is not an ordinary citizen like me. But perhaps, he is also not an ordinary Anglophone minister like Amam Tutu Muna.

I recognize that victimization in this country has not always chosen the minority Anglophones, but there cannot be any denying that the enthusiasm shown by the Supreme Court in this CMC matter smells of citizen-profiling, where the Anglophone, even if they are ministers of the Republic like other big men, are expected to be grateful to have the high positions they hold and could be used like guinea pigs, as in this case, to experiment judicial independence. That is a provocation.